The Armenian-Turkish process hasn’t been finished yet, it will be continued

Though the Prime Minister of Turkey Erdoghan continues his policy, and in the result of the Sargsyan-Erdoghan meeting in Washington there hasn’t been an official reply yet, however a new period of the development of the relations is considered to begin. The Sargsyan-Medvedev meeting, taken place on April 20, proves it, which will be followed by Medvedev’s visit to Turkey. It’s clear that the Armenian-Turkish relations are one of the few problems over which advantages of world-political authorities correspond. And in case of external assistance like this the process can’t be stopped.
If we take continually announcements of Turkey about the preconditions as the basis for the thesis about the break of Armenian-Turkish process, we may probably estimate the political wish of Ankara not enough or to accept Turkey’s difficulties related to the expiry of protocols. But we shouldn’t forget that Turkey announced about the preconditions before Tsurikh as well, but as we know the protocols has been signed.
The following circumstances can be mentioned for this period:
If Turkey expire the protocols with preconditions or reservations, it will be followed by the returning and unexpiry of Armenian signature.
If Turkey doesn’t expire the protocols this week it can’t expire this year because the parliamentary elections 2011 in Turkey are in the nearest future and the AKP political group won’t risk in order not to be judged by them and to lose the majority of electors.
If the protocols aren’t expired, the process won’t be failed. A declarative protocol about the continuation of the relations or the changes of negotiations is possible in these days. What will do Armenia after the expiry of protocols is another question.
Maybe instead of the new period of continuing the process the sides will get extra independent political advantages, it means that Armenia will develop the process of the international recognition of the Armenian Genocide, and Turkey will continue the political preconditions till next elections.
In fact the following logic will exist for Armenia: in case there is no progress in the field of the expiry of protocols, Armenia will activate the other direction-the recognition and judgment of the Armenian Genocide. The president of Armenia made the basis for it in his last reports and announcements and the Armenian diaspera gave an assistance to the process of accepting the projects judging the Armenian Genocide in other countries.
The article was published before the president Serzh Sargsyan’s report about the regulation of the Armenia-Turkey relations.