The Recognition of the Nagorno Karabakh Republic as Possible and Realistic

At different conferences and  meetings foreigners ask Armenian deligates: ‘’Why doesn’t Armenia recognize Nagorno Karabakh’s independence?’’ As the Armenian deligates are very often inexperienced (unlike Azeris, who are prepared beforehand by experts and National Security employees) they do not know how to answer and very often bring controversial arguments.

The recognition of The Nagorno Karabakh Republic by Armenia is possible only in force majeure, when the talks expire, or Azerbaijan initiates military aggression against the population. Armenia is so constructive that does not haste to recognize The Nagorno Karabakh Republic, lest it should exacerbate the situation or stop negotiations. If Armenia recognizes the independence of Nagorno Karabakh Republic now that there are no military actions Azerbaijan is supposed to have no alternative other than start a war. Though it’s not obligatory that Azerbaijan should start a war or OSCE Minsk Group Co-chairs should criticize Armenia.

But the danger of war on part of Azerbaijan will raise as the fact of recognition will make Azerbaijani authorities face with the dilemma: either tostart a war or to make a compromise,

As a matter of fact it can be stated that the recognition means  an ultimatum or exasperation. We also found out that the logical continuation of the recognition is the possibility of war. The recognition is not a matter of one day, like the  bill on ‘’the Recognition of Nagorno Karabakh Republic, brought up by the ‘’Heritage‘’ party.

Before the Recognition

First of all, when making such decisions, Armenian authorities should have prior agreements with the authorities and parliaments of other countries, though casual decisions of recognizing NKR are not excluded (for example, the recognition by Algeria which haces a suchlike problem with Marocco).

Second, there should be proportional public war preparation, in order to avoid panic and pacifism.

Though a similar bill was suggested in 2008 by the party ‘’Heritage’’, there has been no agreement on this issue.

In this respect noteworthy is Vahan Hovhannisyan’s (ARF leader) remark, that the recognition of NKR is not the issue to be discussed and then to be voted against or abstained from. It is due to the disability of both the authorities and the opposition to come to a compromise that this issue was put in discussion.

One the other hand we can say that the discussions on the issue were useful in sobering the OSCE and the Azerbaijani authorities. In this context President Sargsyan’s speech in OSCE Astana Summit doubled this sobering effect. The President officially spoke about the recognition of NGR for the first time. In case Azerbaijan restarts military aggression, Armenia won’t have an alternative other than recognize the NKR de jure, declared President Sargsyan.

The President’s speech was well-structured. The president first mentioned that Armenia is against war, then added that in case of war Armenia will do its best to ensure the security if the Artsakh people. This speech at Astana Summit will make  the OSCE think over its not criticizing Azerbaijan’s aggressive and bellicose behaviour. The president’s challenge on recognizing NKR coincided with the discussions of the corresponding bill in Armenia. And if it is the President who makes such declaration, it means Armenia is getting ready to the procedures which are to follow the recognition, among them political agreement on the international level consolidation and  countering possible steps by Azerbaijan. If Azerbaijan continues its aggressive policy, NKR’s recognition on behalf of Armenia will become more realistic. As by this Azerbaijan’s ability to solve this problem peacefully and constructively becomes more and more evident.

However, if there are no force majeure situations, NKR may be recognized in 2013 after parliamentary elections or in 2013 after presidential elections, when possible pressures by international organizations on Armenian authorities will be neutralized.

In any case, the recognition will make the second conflict between NKR and Azerbaijan more realistic, in which Armenia can’t but play its role.