Parliamentary ‘’Bazaar’’ Began

Parliamentary elections are to be held in half a year, but Armenia has already started to discuss the future of the National Assembly. The British sociological organization “Populus” was the first to speak about it, which has recently published the results of the survey, requested by the organization ‘’European Friends of Armenia. ”

According to the results, the rating list of parties is headed by the Prosperous Armenia – 26%, the second is the Republican Party – 21%, 7 percent of the Armenians will vote for ARF, for the Rule of Law – 4 per cent, for the ANC – 3 percent.

Galust Sahakyan ( the Republican Party) and Larisa Alaverdyan (the Heritage Party), expressed distrust about the results of the poll. The party  “Prosperous Armenia” is most likely to take the results for granted.

The “Populus” was followed by the organization ‘’Sociometer’’, the director of which Aharon Adibekyan  hastened to hold a survey and present its results.

October 20-25,  Adibekyan surveyed 1,650 people. It turned out that the most influential person of the republic is President Sargsyan, he is  followed by Gagik Tsarukyan and Prime Minister Tigran Sargsyan. Viktor Dallakyan closes the list of 20 people.

Out of  915 communities of the republic  675 community leaders are Republicans, yet 100 support the Prosperous Armenia Party, and several dozens of leaders support the Rule of Law.

“The question is ‘’how far’’ the party ”Prosperous Armenia“ is from the Republican Party – said Adibekyan – if the ”Prosperous Armenia“ manages to put the blame of the economic crisis and its consequences on the Republicans, it can draw on its side some part of the opposition votes. ”

The experience in public opinion polls showed Adibekyan that the majority of votes are possible to control, and there are many delicate ways to reorient the votes of one political group to another.

According to Yervand Bozoyan, a political analyst, the ANC and the ARF are sure to enter the new parliament. “ARF has some voters, who have not changed during the past 20 years – he said – once they were in power and used its leverage, now they’re the opposition, and they will use the tough stance adopted with respect to the Armenian-Turkish relations.”

Bozoyan thinks that the main struggle will be between the “Prosperous Armenia” and the Republicans, and the ANC will get seats in the parliament in the result of inertia, which persists after the sweep, taken in 2008. The politician finds it impossible for any political force  to form an alliance with the ANC: “Their rating continues to decline.”

In respect of the ‘’Heritage’’,  Bozoyan expresses his doubts: “I respect  Raffi Hovhannisian, but they must work hard to get into parliament.” He does not exclude the possibility of the fourth force, like the Prosperous Armenia in 2007, the United Labor Party in 2003,  the Rule of Law in 1998.

49.2% of the citizens surveyed associate the economic situation in the country with the president, and 25.9 per cent – with the Prime Minister.

The sociologist says that the forecast is based on six factors: “We take into account the number of members and local institutions, the efficiency of institutions during the election campaigns, financial capacities, the number of community administration heads, which belong to a certain party, the number of influential individuals who join the Party”, he said. The sociologist said that during the election campaign, he always conducts such surveys to “keep a finger on the political pulse and feel its punches.”

“The Republican Party, The Prosperous Armenia and The Rule of Law are sure to enter the new parliament’’, says Adibekyan, ‘’ because the three ruling coalition parties have a large number of community leaders. Local leaders are stronger than regional ones, as every day they solve different problems – leaking roofs, money for medicine or seeds, etc., so people trust them. ”

According to the sociologist, the opposition has almost no chances to gain votes in the regions. “Things are different in Yerevan’’, Adibekyan said, adding that it is here that the opposition may gain votes.

Adibekyan stressed that this picture may change before the elections: “We hold the final poll a week before the elections.”

Adibekyan will present the parties rating indicators at the end of the year.