Objectives of the Caucasus

Summits these days follow one another. After the meeting, “Twenty Grand” in Seoul and the NATO summit in Portugal in the newly built capital of Kazakhstan for the first time in 10 years, the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe will hold a summit.

This is only the fourth summit of the OSCE after the Cold War. First held in 1996 in Budapest. Another two summits were held in 1996 in Lisbon and in 1999 in Istanbul.

It is no accident ten years the gap between the summits coincide with re-entering Russia on the world stage as a global actor “after the shock of the collapse of the Soviet Union. Russia’s recovery has caused some disagreement within the OSCE, the only pan-European and transatlantic organizations, which also includes the country’s “old” Europe and former Soviet countries.

Monitoring of the electoral process to common European arms treaty, a number of questions from 56 OSCE member countries there is no general agreement between the field also between Russia and other very serious problems, including new, alternative security system according to the president of Russia Dmitry Medvedev may under the auspices of the OSCE.

On issues related to the problem of choice method of control under the Treaty on Conventional Armed Forces in Europe (CFE), the 56 member states are divided. Worst of all is that there are serious tensions between Russia and other countries on many issues, including new, relating to the building of alternative security systems, which, according to Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, may be placed under the umbrella of the OSCE.

These searches can draw attention to a single conflict in the OSCE area – Karabakh, where the OSCE plays a direct role.

In contrast to the Russian-Georgian war, we can confidently say that in case of collision, the forces of the parties are not so unequal to attract the attention of the international community. However, taking into account the allied relations with Russia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan’s close ties with Turkey, the military operations around Karabakh could escalate into a regional conflict.

Probably why it was a holding in Astana talks with the presidents of Russia and France, the U.S. secretary of state and presidents of Armenia and Azerbaijan. Such a perspective provides a significant opportunity as well as a significant risk.

For 20 years, has not been such meetings, and there were serious reasons. Meeting of the Presidents, the highest level of negotiations, and it should lead to real, tangible progress, otherwise the impression that no negotiations cannot solve problems in the Caucasus, and thereby significantly reduce the impact of constraints on the search methods of a military solution to the conflict.

For the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict requires two parallel activities: a guarantee of exceptional renewed military conflict and a clear, binding on both parties on the final settlement program.

This is particularly important in this situation, when another deterrent to the resumption of armed conflict – a military balance between the two countries – is also waning. This year Azerbaijan’s military budget exceeds the total budget expenditures in Armenia and Karabakh. This circumstance, as well as over 30 daily incidents on the contact line does not inspire hope for peace, especially considering the lack of even a hint of agreement on any documents.

Astana to be born is acceptable to the parties plan if the summit talks to be held in Astana, will be built on the idea that the previously stalled situation creates the possibility of resolution. We are talking about the idea of a referendum by which the Karabakh residents will be able to determine its final status. The advantage of the referendum, in these circumstances is that it recognizes two fundamental principles that are in the midst of conflict – is self-determination and territorial integrity.

However, still no agreement on the timing of the referendum. It remains the chief obstacle to solving the remaining problems existing between the conflicting parties.

Barely two months in southern Sudan will be a referendum on independence, an agreement which was reached in 2005. About two years ago, Kosovo voted for independence. If in Astana as a result of high-level meeting will strengthen the idea of a referendum and will be offered is acceptable to both sides of the term, it can be considered a significant achievement. In this case, the summit will be a success, the OSCE also succeed, and the Karabakh conflict by ceasing to be synonymous with conflict, would become synonymous with peace.

Vartan Oskanian