Economist Intelligence Unit Published its Report on Armenia

The analytical section of the magazine The Economist », Economist Intelligence Unit, published a report on Armenia.

Reports of the analytical section, which was founded in 1946, for businessmen and politicians around the world are an important source for the formation of ideas about political and economic life of the country. The report analyzes the current situation and makes projections for the coming years.

Thus, the analysts “Economist” in the political sphere noted that “the position of President Serzh Sargsyan at the present time seems to be safer: the economic situation has improved since the last recorded year of economic recession in 14.4 percent.”

Opportunities led by Levon Ter-Petrosyan opposition Armenian National Congress (ANC) jeopardize the long duration of the Government or to achieve significant changes in the currently small. Despite the fact that in March 2010, the ANC organized a rally to commemorate victims of the events of March 2008, this rally is not turned into a demonstration against the government or authorities. In the ANC there is no consolidated unified political program, and he criticizes the government without offering alternative policies. Such actions are unlikely to convince the public that the ANC can form a consolidated opposition force. In addition, efforts to Levon Ter-Petrosyan to create a broader platform of opposition together with the ARF and the Heritage party failed. At the same time, President Serzh Sargsyan managed to consolidate his power among political and business elites “- the report says.

“And even a recession in 2009 did not significantly weaken the position of President Serzh Sargsyan” – continue to analyze the report’s authors.

“The outlook for economic activity in 2011-2012 has a tendency to improvement due to restoration of the external economic environment and increasing local demand, which will reduce the likelihood of social unrest. Nevertheless, tension remains within the ruling coalition. ”

As for the upcoming 2012 parliamentary and 2013 presidential elections, the authors of the analysis considered likely that headed by President Serzh Sargsyan’s Republican Party “will retain its dominance in parliament.”

The report’s authors express the view that to strengthen its position in the election the Republican Party of Armenia “uses the administrative resource, and the opposition once again faced with difficulties due to the inability to participate as a single block.

According to the authors of the report, despite the fact that there were some steps to improve electoral processes, it is expected that the opposition contests the election results. They also do not rule out post-election demonstrations. “On the question of demonstrations of power will be more restrained because of their similar actions in 2008 were widely criticized by the international community.”

With regard to external relations, the report states that efforts to normalize relations with Turkey will be difficult, since the issue of unresolved conflict [Armenia], with an important ally of Turkey, Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, “the progress is very small.” It is also expected that the efforts of President Sargsyan to reconcile with Turkey and Azerbaijan will meet resistance.

Prospects of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, according to the report, look “blurry”, “despite the continued mediation of the OSCE Minsk Group”. “Despite the fact that in the ongoing meetings, they claim some progress, the situation on the ground remains difficult. The number of cases of violations of the ceasefire increased. “